Confused - trying to update to the stable version - trayicon not showing up

That seems like it is reading a port from the database?

Also, you are missing a hyphen in from of -server-datafolder= it should be --server-datafolder.
The command should be:

“C:\Program Files\Duplicati 2\Duplicati.GUI.TrayIcon.exe” --no-hosted-server --server-datafolder=“C:\Windows\System32\config\systemprofile\AppData\Local\Duplicati” --hosturl=http://localhost8200 --read-config-from-db

You should not need --hosturl if it reads from the database, but as @ts678 points out, there are often permission issues when running as a service.